Timing of the US Market Crash: A Roadmap

Expert Clive Maund examines the broad stock market charts to tell you when he believes the US market will collapse.


With global equity markets looking increasingly fragile in the face of rising interest rates, especially in the United States, and the traditional crash season coming up, this is a good time for us to take an updated look at the charts for l broad stock market. We took one last look at the general market on August 28, when we observed that it had been in a bear market since the beginning of the year.

The market is rounding and gradually accelerating down below a Dome maximum pattern, just like it did in 2008.

However, until now, the decline has been relatively gradual. We are looking at it again now due to the growing risk of it accelerating to the downside. Here it should be emphasized that, given the situation of the economy and the prospects, the market should be much lower, and it is only because of Fed meddling and market buying, perhaps through Blackrock and Vanguard, etc., that it is not.

We know they can create unlimited money for this purpose, which is why we have been cautious about shorting the market, and so they attack society at large with the bill by increasing inflation.

We have continued to buy and trade stocks over the past few weeks because, even if the overall market trend is down, individual stocks can go up for their own reasons, but if we see the broad market gain momentum to the downside, that will become more difficult and given where we are in the market cycle, albeit biased by the Fed, we will probably want to find ways to profit from a declining market.

Looking at the latest 6-month chart for the S & P500 index, we can see that the market has reentered an expanding bearish trend channel where it is currently in the middle and is heading towards the support shown above its lower bound.

If this support fails, then we can expect it to at least head towards the lower channel boundary. We missed a big opportunity to short it when it hit the channel’s upper rail in mid-August and also the declining 200-day moving average. Before you leave this chart, note that it isn’t much oversold on its MACD indicator yet.

In August, the 5-year chart helped us determine that we are in an established bear market and this chart makes it clear what is going on. The market is rounding and gradually accelerating down below a Dome maximum pattern, just like it did in 2008.

This chart portends the eventual failure of the support levels shown, leading to a sharp drop or slump, which would not be surprising considering the abysmal state of the economy and the worsening outlook.

The downside risk will increase significantly once the support is shown above the 3600 level fails. Again it is worth noting that the market is not oversold on its MACD on this chart, which means there is technically plenty of room for it to fall.

On the 5-year chart for the S & P500 index which includes the period of the 2008 market crash, we can see the eerie and frightening similarity between our 5-year chart for the S & P500 index now and this chart.

There is little to say about this as the similarities are so obvious, but it’s interesting to see how the rally to the Dome border in August this year matches a very similar rally in May / June 2008 before the market then rolled over and tumbled as it is doing now, but at the time, after breaking a support level and dropping to new lows, it stabilized for a few months and had one last gasp upside before collapsing and craters when the crash phase has occurred.

Before you pack your bags and head for the hills, I recommend that you get as much physical gold and silver as possible.

Compare these two charts and you will have a roadmap. If the pattern repeats itself, which won’t necessarily happen, we may see it develop in a similar way. One last very important point to note is that after the market crash in 2008, the Fed turned on the taps and flooded the system with repeated QE attacks. He can’t do it this time around as the system is already at full capacity with all the tools in the toolbox used, so there will be no such recovery, especially as the debt market will have fallen apart leaving an economic wasteland behind.

We will conclude this article with a very long term chart of the S & P500 index presented to me by my brother Nigel Maund just this morning. I believe Nigel’s scary and frightening analysis and description are basically correct and the only reason I’ve been relatively complacent so far is not wanting to be right too soon – these scenarios take time to come true, even if the time is running out. expiring quickly.

Before you pack your bags and head for the hills, I recommend that you get as much physical gold and silver as you can and don’t worry about the possibility of a drop in the paper price of gold and silver during the early stages of a crash market, because what matters is their intrinsic value, the price of the paper at this stage is irrelevant: it is no good to be able to theoretically buy them at a lower price if there are none to buy, which is why these metals are expected to break ranks with the stock market at some point and soar.

When it hits the fan, you’ll be able to swap physical gold and silver for the things you need, especially silver, which is more useful in this regard, while fiat bills may very well become entirely worthless.


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Information on CliveMaund.com

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on the data available to him at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s views are his own and are not a recommendation or offer to buy or sell any securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who does not receive any compensation of any kind from any group, individual or company mentioned in his reports. Since trading and investing in any financial market can carry a serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult a qualified investment advisor, licensed by the appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and perform your own due diligence. and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although he is a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a registered securities advisor. Therefore, Mr. Maund’s views on the market and shares can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and approval of a registered securities adviser operating in compliance with the regulations. appropriate in your area of ​​jurisdiction.

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