This superbull from JPMorgan that called the summer rally sees a soft landing in sight. Here is his advice on stocks and oil.

A fifth straight win was taken off the table after the August IPC numbers surprised to the upside.

And there appears to be nothing that could affect the Fed from a 75 basis point hike this month. However, when the CPI appears to be peaking, our chart of the day below offers good news for investors.

On ours call of the day, which comes from one of Wall Street’s staunchest bulls, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, who is betting on a soft landing for the global economy. The chief market strategist was on time with a call for an equity hike this summer, and investors were heard last month to hold on, as the gains aren’t over.

To begin with, investors need to trust data more and be less obsessed with central banks, he says.

“We believe economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric. And the data seems to increasingly support a soft landing (rather than a global recession) given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators and stabilizing consumer confidence, “Kolanovic told clients in a new note.

It sees a global recession as avoidable due to expectations that China and Europe will support their economies in need. The low positioning and investor sentiment should also “continue to provide favorable wind for risky assets, despite the central bank’s more aggressive rhetoric recently.”

Among these assets, JPM maintains an “aggressive overweight” in commodities and commodity sensitive assets, due to a super cycle thesis and to hedge inflation and geopolitical risks.

Kolanovic suggests buying the drop in energy as no solution to the current European crisis is in sight and markets have yet to discount weaker prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran or G-7 progress on Russian oil price caps. .

He also remains bullish on equities, particularly cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets / China versus expensive defensive ones.

Unlike energy, “defensive industries have outperformed on multiple expansion and are trading at a near-record premium relative to the market,” said the strategist adding that central bank tightening and job resilience could maintain. rates higher for longer, limiting multiples for long-term growth and technology.

Midterms are also weighing on the bank’s equation for riskier assets. “Given the delay it takes for rate hikes to work in the system, and with only a month ahead of major US elections, we believe it would be a mistake for the Fed to increase the risk of a hawkish political error and jeopardize market stability. “, said Kolanovic.

Markets

Postal data, ES00 stock futures,
-2.31%

YM00,
-1.81%

NQ00,
-3.00%
are slipping, along with Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.449%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
3.741%
and the DXY dollar,
+ 1.10%.
CL.1 oil prices,
-0.50%
are rising like GC00 gold prices,
-1.79%
also scroll.

The buzz

Ouch. The September CPI rose 0.1% on the month, above expectations, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.6%. Year-on-year CPI slowed to 8.3%, less than expected, from 8.5%. In view of this, the latest small business sentiment index showed an increase in confidence. The federal budget is due later.

Oracle ORCL,
+ 1.54%
disappointed with earnings and its profit forecast, thanks to a stronger dollar. The title rises slightly.

Peloton PTON,
+ 7.18%
Shares are down after co-founders John Foley and Hisao Kushi said they are stepping down.

HBO had a great night at Emmy that blew Netflix NFLX away,
+ 1.27%
with great awards for “Successione” and “Euforia”. Meanwhile, interest in Netflix’s “The Crown” has been high since the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Twitter TWTR,
-1.85%
Shareholders are reportedly expected to approve the $ 44 billion acquisition that Tesla’s TSLA,
+ 2.83%
Elon Musk tried to leave a meeting early Tuesday. The fate of the deal, however, could end in court. And a Twitter whistleblower will testify in Congress.

A Russian unit designed as a frontline defense against a NATO attack was apparently badly damaged in Ukraine’s latest advance.

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Escape from poverty, one generation at a time.

The graph

In five of seven historic inflationary peaks, “the S&P 500 bottomed out on or before the final inflation peak,” said Jim Paulson, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.

Leuthold Group

Among the exceptions, in one case the stock market moved sideways for months after that peak, even though it saw no major downward moves. And in 1970, stocks moved south even after that high inflation, even though the decline was brief and the S&P 500 fully recovered after a few months, notes the strategist.

Leuthold Group

The tickers

These were the most searched tickers on MarketWatch at 6:00 am Eastern time:

Ticker

Security name

TSLA,
+ 2.83%

Tesla

GME,
+ 1.11%

GameStop

AMC,
+ 5.14%

AMC entertainment

BBBY,
+ 2.69%

Bath to bed and beyond

NIO,
+ 13.52%

NIO

APE,
+ 3.44%

Preferred Shares of AMC Entertainment

AAPL,
+ 3.85%

Apple

NOK,
+ 1.18%

Nokia

CHPT,
+ 3.39%

Charging point

AMZN,
+ 2.39%

Amazon

Random reads

Coffee vigilantes come to the aid of Goldman employees.

Another mysterious death hits the Russian president. Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

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