The real estate market in the Triangle is changing

RALEIGH – For anyone wondering what will happen in Triangle’s real estate market for the rest of the year, the latest available data from Triangle Multiple Listing Service could suggest a slowing market, at least in terms of price appreciation.

But this week several real estate agents told WRAL TechWire that the market slowdown in median home selling prices may have been predicted and may in fact be a resumption of the seasonal trends seen historically.

Yet no one is certain.

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Triangle’s latest real estate market data

Here’s the last one:

The average sale price of all homes sold in the Triangle in July 2022 was $ 420,000, according to Triangle Multiple Listing Service (TMLS) data obtained by WRAL TechWire.

It fell from $ 421,706 in June 2022.

And the average selling price fell in both Wake County and Durham County, about 5% in Durham from the previous month.

Here’s the difference: The average selling price of a home in County Durham in June 2022, out of 552 closed transactions, was $ 430,000, according to data from TMLS. But in July, the average selling price dropped to $ 410,600, with 443 transactions closed.

And in Wake County, the average selling price in July 2022 was $ 490,000 on 1,703 closed transactions, down from $ 493,081 in June of 1,970 closed transactions.

But median sales prices rose in Johnston County and Chatham County. Median sales prices for Chatham County homes increased in July, up more than 10% from the previous month.

Median home sales prices in Johnston County increased from $ 375,000 in June to $ 380,000 in July, and in Chatham County, the median home sales price is now $ 662,500, up from $ 600,500 in June. The average selling price of properties in Chatham County in May, however, was $ 650,750, the previous record in the TMLS dataset.

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What does all this mean

“This year is very strong,” said Seth Gold, a licensed REALTOR real estate agent and broker with Bold Real Estate and Governors Club Realty, specializing in homes in Chatham County and across the triangle. “But we’re starting to see a little change.”

However, Gold said, July is typically a slower month in terms of sales volume and buyer demand, historically.

It just didn’t happen in July 2020 or July 2021 as the housing market was red-hot due to low inventory, high demand for buyers, and the continuing changes in home buying and migration that led to the triangle being between. the hottest real estate markets in the nation, Gold said.

“What we are seeing is a plateau in price appreciation,” said Tony Fink, a licensed real estate agent and REALTOR with Linda Craft & Team REALTORS in Raleigh. “That was expected.”

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While most of the real estate metrics that become publicly available are actually retrospective, Fink noted in the interview, it’s entirely possible that we’re seeing a slowdown in price appreciation.

That’s not to say this is a bad thing, though, Fink noted.

“We are seeing a higher percentage of home sales at or below the list price,” Fink said. “These are signs of a healthy market, not a stress one, given where we come from, which was a market severely limited by supply in early 2022 and throughout 2021”.

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So … what are the prospects for the Triangle real estate market?

Overall, Gold said, buyer confidence in the economy could change.

“People are getting a little more reserved,” Gold said.

This is due to continuing concerns about the future direction of the local, state and national economy and the recent volatility of mortgage interest rates, which have actually fallen in two consecutive weeks and dropped below 5% for the first time since. April for the week through August 4, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac.

But these shifts to higher buyer reserves won’t impact the market in the long term, Gold said. There is growth coming into the Triangle, he noted, including technology companies, life sciences companies and, of course, VinFast’s decision to build its $ 4 billion automotive assembly plant in Chatham County, where this week bought the land on which it will build the factory for nearly $ 44 million.

“These types of companies don’t just pick a location for no reason and have valuable money and resources going where they want to land,” Gold said. “This should add a lot of confidence to buyers in our market.”

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Slowdown in price appreciation, but not home values

While there may be signs of a slowing market, this slowdown could be a return to seasonal norms, Fink noted.

“I don’t think that’s a bad thing,” Fink said. “Seasonality came out the window in 2020, due to COVID.”

One of the things that happened in the 2020 and 2021 markets was that price appreciation continued as stocks remained suppressed and immigration continued to the Triangle, Fink noted.

“The agents representing the sellers had a hard time predicting what would happen in the market,” Fink said. This is why there were home bidding wars earlier this year, including many homes sold for over $ 100,000 more than the asking price.

But seasonality could return, with a peak in activity expected in the fall in September and October when shoppers may find it better to buy, a slowdown in holidays and then another peak in spring between April and late June, Fink said. .

Prepare for a bidding war: most of Triangle’s home sales list prices, some of $ 100,000 +

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