Tesla’s share in the auto market is now around 2%

I recently published an article on how Tesla’s share in the electric vehicle (BEV) market has changed over the past couple of years. Despite the fact that Tesla’s deliveries grew 180% from Q2 2020 to Q2 2022, the company’s share of the BEV market dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in second quarter of 2022 (combining the markets of China, the United States and Europe). The data came from Troy Teslike.

Complaint no. 1 I received for writing about the data (which I can’t say to expect) was that Tesla’s share of the general automotive market has grown even as its BEV market share has decreased and its BEV market share has it does not matter. The argument was that the only thing that matters is Tesla’s share in the overall market. (I definitely disagree, but I won’t talk about it here Do I agree that Tesla’s share in the overall automotive market is very interesting and important.) I assume Troy received the same claims and complaints I received, leading him to post the following tweet.

As the tweet above shows, Tesla’s share in the general auto market also declined slightly in the last quarter. There are some probable reasons for this. For one, Tesla had the closure of factories or production lines in the second quarter which reduced Tesla’s production. Additionally, auto companies have begun to recover somewhat from the supply chain crises they have faced. With other automakers seeing their production increase as Tesla’s production stopped or declined for a period of time, the clear result has been a drop in Tesla’s market share.

Let’s take a closer look at the data, though.

Image © Troy Teslike

In the United States, Tesla’s market share remained nearly stable after rapidly climbing from a market share of around 2% to 3.5%. It only dropped slightly from the automotive market share of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 3.4% in the second quarter of 2022.

Likewise, after a steady increase in China’s automotive market share from Q2 2020 (0.6%) to Q1 2022 (2.0%), Tesla increased slightly in Q2 2022 and fell at 1.9%. Again, this is a minimal drop and could be explained by some temporary production issues.

But in Europe the change has been dramatic. Tesla climbed to 2.1% of the European auto market by the fourth quarter of 2021 (and also in the first quarter of 2022), with a steady increase from 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022. But in the second quarter by 2022, nearly all of that gain was lost when Tesla dropped to 0.9% of the auto market.

Image © Troy Teslike

We certainly don’t know where things will go in the future. Aside from the potential explanations for the decline in market share described above, it could also be argued that Tesla has begun shipping vehicles (or at least more models) to several new markets. However, that said, Tesla historically would not expand to such new markets if it had too much demand in existing markets. But turning it around once again, customers in some of these markets have been waiting years for their vehicles, and Tesla needs to strike the right balance between serving people in new markets and extending wait times in established ones (if waiting times are to be). really be extended).

Looking back doesn’t necessarily help us look forward. Sometimes looking back can be deceptive. In a year we will see more how recent quarters affect general trends. If the overall automotive market picks up a lot when automotive chip problems and other supply chain challenges are resolved, Tesla may have a hard time climbing the market share ladder. However, if Tesla quickly resolves some of its manufacturing bottlenecks and significantly increases production at its new plants, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, it could rise again. We will see.

The bottom line for now, however, is that Tesla’s market share in the US, China and Europe combined was 2.1% in the second quarter of 2022, down slightly from 2.3% in the fourth quarter. of 2021 and 2.4% in the first quarter of 2022, but up significantly from 0.8% two years earlier in the second quarter of 2020. Looking at the big picture, Tesla looks pretty good. And if you focused on revenue and net profit, it would definitely be even better.

 

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