Tesla’s electric vehicle market share in Europe halved in the second quarter (NASDAQ: TSLA)

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Tesla’s European sales halved in the second quarter despite having just opened its first European factory in March

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A peculiar aspect of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) the quarterly report is that it is one of the very few automakers that don’t provide any significant regional breakdown of its auto unit sales. This would mean, at the very least, breaking down into these geographic areas:

  • Europe

  • North America

  • Asia / China

However, just because Tesla doesn’t provide this data in its quarterly reports doesn’t mean it’s not available elsewhere, with a bit of a delay. About a month later, all the European data was assembled in its entirety.

As a result, we have just received the final and complete numbers for all of Europe for the month of June – and therefore also the full second quarter. Why is this of particular relevance now, you may ask?

Here because:

Elon Musk launches the dance moves as he opens the new Tesla factory in Germany

Yes, Tesla opened its factory in Germany on March 22, spring-loaded to dramatically increase Tesla’s second-quarter sales in Europe after its electric vehicle market share had dropped dramatically – two-thirds! – from 2019 to 2021:

Europe

total EV

Tesla

% To share

2019

558015

110132

20%

2020

1364967

98924

7%

2021

2270263

169709

7%

Data source: 13% of electric new car sales in Europe (21% plug-in)

Tesla’s German factory opening date, March 22, meant it was almost perfectly tailored to coincide with Tesla’s number of monstrous second-quarter sales in Europe. After all, this is Tesla’s first factory in Europe and it wouldn’t depend as much on cars exported from California, where Tesla makes both Model 3 and Model Y and has the ability to export to Europe. This factory launch on March 22 was the obvious logic why Tesla’s sales went to the moon in Europe in the June quarter.

Tesla’s European market share of electric vehicles fell from 11% to 5% in the second quarter

Instead of Tesla’s European electric vehicle market share which increased dramatically in the second quarter following the opening of the brand new factory near Berlin on March 22 (see link above), the opposite happened:

Europe

total EV

Tesla

% To share

1st quarter 2022

566487

59502

11%

2nd quarter 2022

562431

26154

5%

Data source: 13% of electric new car sales in Europe (21% plug-in)

Oops! Tesla’s market share fell by (just over) half in the second quarter. Not what you expected, as Tesla’s first European factory opened on March 22.

What about BEV sales only?

A common objection to Tesla’s electric vehicle market share is the very definition of electric vehicle itself. The definition of EV is BEV (battery electric vehicle) + PHEV (plug-in hybrid) = EV. Obviously Tesla’s market share in BEV is higher than that in EV because Tesla doesn’t make PHEVs, unlike some of its competitors.

However, the difference in definition between EV and BEV matters more in terms of the absolute level of Tesla’s market share than direction. If the sales numbers of PHEV and BEV move equally in the same direction, the changes in market share for Tesla will also be the same, regardless of the definition of EV chosen. Only the absolute level would be different, regardless of whether PHEV was included or not.

However, PHEV and BEV sales don’t move identically. They may have moved relatively similarly for most of the past few years, but to satisfy those who suspect that even the slightest shift in the relative sales trajectory between these two EV versions has had a material impact on the statistical conclusion, I present these BEVs – just sales facts:

Europe

BEV

Tesla

% To share

1st quarter 2022

332985

59502

18%

2nd quarter 2022

324112

26154

8%

Data source: 13% of electric new car sales in Europe (21% plug-in)

You see, I told you: the absolute numbers are higher, but the statistical direction remains almost the same. The European market share of Tesla’s BEV alone fell by (just over) half from the first quarter of 2022 to the second quarter. In other words, Tesla’s drastic drop in market share was roughly the same whether the definition of BEV alone was chosen, or whether the definition of EV was chosen.

The numbers are even worse than they seem at first glance

Tesla’s second-quarter market share plunge in Europe is the kind of faceplant you’d expect if you were told that Tesla “closed” its only European factory on March 22, it didn’t open it on March 22. . This was the quarter that Tesla’s European sales were supposed to go to the moon the next quarter, not be cut in half.

Tesla’s European sales also fell by half in absolute terms

An objection to this analysis could be this potential mitigating circumstance: “It is okay for the market share to decrease by more than 50% if the total market increases by more than 100%, because what is really important is that the sales numbers absolute are growing. ” The problem is that it didn’t even happen in the second quarter.

Tesla unit sales in Europe fell 56% in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter. In absolute numbers, European unit sales decreased from 59,502 units in the first quarter to 26,154 in the second quarter. In other words, while the European electric vehicle market fell “only” by 8%, Tesla’s sales fell by a whopping 56%. That is why its market share has been halved.

Tesla’s electric vehicle market share falls into oblivion in Europe

With Tesla’s electric vehicle market share now below 5% in Europe and rapidly declining, investors still seriously believe that Tesla is the only company to build new electric vehicle production capacity in Europe in 2022. and in 2023? Tesla gets an oversized press for its only electric vehicle factory opening (March 22, 2022), but other automakers tend to roll out new electric vehicle production lines within new and old factories alike with almost no the same clamor.

That’s why investors might be surprised to see this data. They may be even more surprised in the coming quarters, despite Tesla’s Berlin factory launching right before the start of last quarter.

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