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All lines of play via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Market report of Monday 14th November
* Indicates that the team is in the second part of a back-to-back
** The lines are opening numbers
The best bets
Record: 15-19 | Unit: -4.31 | ROI: -13.45%
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic (-1, 221)
LaMelo Ball made its seasonal debut on Saturday and it is no coincidence that Charlotte achieved her best individual attacking score in nine games (111.5). Ball is not on the injury report tonight, but he only played 28 minutes on Saturday, so maybe there is a small limitation of minutes to start. The Hornets won’t have Gordon Hayward yet again tonight, and it’s unlikely Dennis Smith Jr. will play too. Meanwhile, Paolo Banchero hasn’t played since November 7 due to an ankle injury and is moot once again tonight, but the rookie star trained on Sunday, which would likely lead him to play tonight. If Banchero were to play tonight, the Magic team will close higher than the number right now, and rightfully so. Banchero’s presence would add to Orlando’s size advantage and his ability to score against minor defenses should show up tonight against the 20th ranked defense which allows 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Magic have also quietly become an adequate defensive team and enter this game in 15th place in terms of defensive efficiency at 112.0 points for every 100 possessions allowed. They have a defender who can get sick on Ball sometimes in Chuma Okeke, and they are a transition defense almost in the top ten, an area of their defensive play that becomes much more important with Ball back. I will play it at PK because I expect it to close higher once Banchero is officially announced as active.
Game: Magic (PK)
Summary of the best bets
Toronto Raptors (-5, 220) to the Detroit Pistons
Injuries are rampant in this game, making it difficult to figure out what this number should be. Toronto, as we know, will not have Pascal Siakam or Precious Achiuwa on track tonight due to various injuries, and now Fred VanVleet has been ruled out for a non-COVID illness. This means that the Raptors will take the floor tonight without his top two scorers and rebounds, yet the market has a consensus of -5. Apparently it would be time to jump on the Pistons, but Cade Cunningham stays on the sidelines with that shin problem and Cory Joseph is moot. Neither team was in good shape. Toronto is 1-3 SU / 0-4 ATS in the bottom four with a net score of -9.6 and Detroit is 1-5 SU / 1-4-1 ATS in the last six with a net score of -12.7. Neither side or total has moved since the opening, and I suppose this is one of the games with fewer hands on the board tonight.
Phoenix Suns to Miami Heat (-1.5, 217)
Phoenix concludes a four-game trip to Miami tonight, but with two free nights between games the team should be well rested to arrive tonight. Chris Paul is questionable to play due to heel pain that has kept him out of the last two games and Landry Shamet is out as well which means this team is a little short in the backcourt if Paul can’t go. However, the Heat are dealing with their own injury issues. Tyler Herro, who hasn’t played in 10 days, is moot to play tonight, as is Dewayne Dedmon. Although Herro takes the floor tonight, Miami has proven to be overrated by the market and enters this competition with an ATS record of 3-9-1. However, the Heat have only conceded 111.3 points for 100 points for 100 possessions in non-junk time this season, and could bog down a Suns offense that had trouble scoring against Orlando on Friday.
* Oklahoma City Thunder to the Boston Celtics (-11, 227.5)
Oklahoma City will play the second leg of a back-to-back game today, but they have a little more rest time than usual as their tip against New York on Sunday was at 12 noon ET. Still, it was a sporting affair with 280 points total and 109 possessions, and it’s likely a similarly paced match will take place in Boston tonight. The Celtics are 11th in transition rate from live rebounds and don’t mind running when they have the opportunity, and the Thunders live on transition opportunities due to a below-average midfield offense that averages only 95.3 points for every 100 games. It is likely that, once again, this total was staked by three points at 230 consensus.
Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 221) to the Houston Rockets
This is the frontend of a back-to-back road to Los Angeles, so John Wall has a night off tonight. On the other hand, Houston has listed Jalen Green as questionable due to shoulder pain. Green finally started to feel comfortable in November and is averaging 26.2 points with 54.1% from ground and 41.3% from depth, so his absence would be a major blow to the Rockets. who have had a hard time scoring against the Clippers this season (97.5 offensive rating in two games). The previous two matches in this series scored 188 and 210 total points, but both match totals closed at 224.5 and 223.5 consensus. Obviously we have seen an adjustment with the opening of 221 and the subsequent move up to 219.5 in some stores. If Green is officially banned, expect this number to drop further.
Atlanta Hawks to Milwaukee Bucks (-4, 225)
It turns out that Milwaukee is deadly, after all, as the team enters this 1-2 SU and ATS match in their last three games. This is already the third meeting between these two clubs this season and we already have two very different results in the books. In the first match Giannis Antetokounmpo went wild for 34 points and 17 rebounds out of 11 out of 19 shooting from the floor, and Trae Young shed 42 points out of 15 out of 32 in a high-scoring game that exceeded the total. In the second match the Bucks’ shot and offensive rebound disappeared and they failed to score 100 points in a defeat. If I were to expect one of those two results tonight, it would be the first. Milwaukee is eighth for offensive rebound (29.9%) and Atlanta is 18th for defensive rebound (72.4%). The Bucks generate the 12th highest number of points per 100 misses (22.4) and the sixth highest number of throw-ins per 100 errors (20.8), and these are two categories in which the Hawks rank 18th respectively. and 24th in defense.
San Antonio Spurs a * Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 232)
Thirteen games to go to the season and Golden State’s troubles aren’t going away. The Warriors defense – who are now in 24th place in non-junk time efficiency with 114.5 points per 100 allowed possessions – conceded 1,184 points per possession last night and 1,106 points per game at half-court. It was an absolute nightmare, regardless of the lineup, and the team relies on Stephen Curry to generate the majority of his attack. Add in the fact that tonight is a back-to-back, which probably means no Klay Thompson as a minimum, and this match is hard to touch this morning. The market pushed this number to 7.5 which is understandable given the fights of the Warriors and the sudden 3-0 Spurs ATS in the last three games.