Is $ 100k Bitcoin the next step after cryptocurrencies hit rock bottom?

(Kitco News) After stabilizing above $ 20,000 after the end of the summer, Bitcoin looks poised for its next step as markets focus on regulation, institutional adoption and the next halving, according to 3iQ, which is the first. Canadian regulated digital asset investment fund manager.
Although Bitcoin has been involved in the contagion risk of the DeFi space, plummeting from its record of $ 60,000 recorded last year to less than $ 18,000 this summer, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is currently trading just under $ 24,000. And many analysts and market participants are starting to agree that the lowest price for Bitcoin is on the way.
“The normal correction of any growth or risk asset is a 50% retracement. First, we saw Bitcoin go from $ 60,000 to $ 30,000. And then we had our crypto financial crisis, which was the easing of the DeFi space. and the lending models that people had created. And there was the $ 30k to under $ 20k selloff. And I think we’ve seen most of this shake-out happen. We don’t see that this is going to continue much longer. “Fred Pye, founder and CEO of 3iQ told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Blockchain Futurist Conference in Toronto.
In the future, the time Bitcoin will spend below $ 20,000 will be very limited, 3iQ head of research Mark Connors added.
“I can’t guarantee it will never reach $ 20,000 again, but I’ll tell you that in the next year, the amount of time it is less than $ 20,000 will be less than 2.5% of the time,” Connors said.
And this is primarily due to the reasons why Bitcoin fell. “It was the runoff. It was the plumbing failure. It wasn’t the protocol. And there was a technical reason why it was brought here. We suggest that the current levels are a good entry point? 100%”, he said.
A year ago, Pye predicted that Bitcoin would hit $ 100,000 in 2023 and possibly even $ 1 million this decade. Pye clarified that this price estimate was based on past and future halves.
Pye’s price outlook hasn’t changed much since then. “These drivers were based on what we call stock-to-flow analysis, which we were quoting. Stock-to-flow classifies the scarcity of certain assets such as gold and Bitcoin,” he said. “Gold is growing 4% per year at this rate. Bitcoin is now growing 2% per year and in two years it will grow 1% per year. So Bitcoin’s inflation rate relative to gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a store of wealth ».
And going to the next Bitcoin halving, you’ll see FOMO return, with people wanting to re-enter to avoid missing out on the next rally, Pye added.
In the past, the limited supply of Bitcoin and the halving process have made huge price increases possible. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years and is when the reward for mining bitcoin transactions is halved, which also reduces the rate at which new bitcoins come into circulation. The last halving of bitcoin was in May 2020. And the next one is scheduled for May 2024.
Furthermore, due to Bitcoin’s exponential growth, its pricing potential is still being overlooked. It was a similar story with TV, the Internet, and social media, Connors pointed out. “Can Bitcoin reach $ 100,000? That’s a low score with adoption and sound technology, which is the answer to the devaluation of fiat.”

Is the Fed a Problem for Bitcoin?
With markets focused on the aggressive tightening path the Federal Reserve is taking to fight inflation, Connors said upcoming rate hikes would have limited impact on Bitcoin this fall and winter.
“The debt load is currently at World War II levels. When people say they raise rates like Volcker in the 1970s, the Fed can’t. Volcker had a 30% debt-to-GDP ratio. He had a walkway because the impact on the economy has been minimal. Right now, the Fed can raise rates to 4%. But we’re not going any further. The next three Fed meetings are noisy, “Connors noted.
The regulation and all news from Congress, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will have a more significant impact on Bitcoin.
“The September meeting we hold is a meeting with the cabinet. When the president’s working group says so, here is our plan on regulations so that institutions can then point the hammer and get involved in cryptocurrencies. This is the meeting I care about, “he said.
The United States and Canada follow two very different regulatory paths. Canada is lagging behind in terms of regulating trade and custody cash flows. But Canada has won the battle when it comes to Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs.
In the US, Connors added that it makes sense for the CFTC to have more oversight over cryptocurrencies, which would consider Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities. But he warned it could be a funding knife fight in Washington.
“The CFTC is also used to having markets open 24 hours a day. They are in a better place to monitor cryptocurrencies. [But] the CFTC is a fraction of the size of the SEC, so it will receive more funding if that happens. There will be a battle over the territory. It will be a knife fight in Washington, “Connors described.
In 2021, 3iQ was one of the first companies in the world to launch ETFs on Bitcoin and Ether in partnership with CoinShares.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee this accuracy. This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to trade in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article disclaim any liability for loss and / or damage resulting from the use of this publication.


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